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条件概率简介

通过示例理解概率和条件概率的基本概念。

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条件概率简介

通过示例理解概率和条件概率的基本概念。

P = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes}}

掷两颗骰子得到的取值

Die rolls123456
1234567
2345678
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45678910
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P(\text{sum of 7}) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes}} = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6} \approx 0.166

P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}

...
52 playing cards deck

P(B) = \frac{\text{Number of red cards}}{\text{Total number of cards}} = \frac{26}{52} = \frac{1}{2}

...
Only red cards

P(A \cap B) = \frac{\text{Number of hearts}}{\text{Total number of cards}} = \frac{13}{52} = \frac{1}{4}

...
Only Herats cards

P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{\frac{1}{4}}{\frac{1}{2}} = \frac{1}{2}

P(B) = \frac{\text{Number of students who play sports}}{\text{Total number of students}} = \frac{300}{500} = \frac{3}{5}

P(A \cap B) = \frac{\text{Number of students in both sports and choir}}{\text{Total number of students}} = \frac{150}{500} = \frac{3}{10}

P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{\frac{3}{10}}{\frac{3}{5}} = \frac{1}{2}

贝叶斯网络中的图模式

因果关系—贝叶斯定理